000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020950
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Jun 02 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W, from 04N to 16N, moving
westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
within 180 nm west of the wave from 08N to 13N. Active
disorganized convection is expected to continue with this system
into the early part of the upcoming week while it moves slowly
westward well to the south of the coast of Mexico. However,
development of this system appears unlikely.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1007 mb
over northern Colombia to 10N86W to 11N97W to 09N110W to 09N130W
to low pressure near 08N140W 1010 mb. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between
109W and 113W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between
113W and 115W and from 10N to 12N between 135W and 138W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of the
trough between 100W and 103W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between
118W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
south of the trough between 93W and 96W, and south of the trough
within 60 nm of 07N105W and of 06N118W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands as indicated in an overnight ASCAT
satellite data pass. Light to gentle winds prevail over the
remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft off Baja
California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, seas
are in the 4-6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or less
are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist off
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail
off the Baja California waters through the early part of
the upcoming week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail
across the open waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are
expected off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy
conditions, dense at times, may persist off southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
S Mexico and Central America.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh NE winds were detected last night over the Gulf of
Papagayo by an ASCAT satellite data pass. Since then, the
winds there and over the Nicaragua offshore waters have become
light to gentle in speeds and N to NE in direction. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to
locally moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are
in the 5-6 ft range N of the monsoon trough due to long-period S
to SW swell and 4-5 ft south of the monsoon trough. Hazy
conditions continues off the Central American coast due to
agricultural fires in southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.
For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the
Papagayo region and Nicaragua offshore waters will become light
and variable this afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
are expected for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central American
offshore waters the next few days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from high pressure of 1030 mb that is centered
well to the northwest of the discussion area near 32N146W to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon
trough, and low pressure of 1010 mb near 08N140W, is supporting
fresh to strong NE winds N of the monsoon trough to 25N and W of
120W as noted in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas
with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate
winds are generally elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Seas of
6-8 ft in north to northeast swell prevail across all but the far
NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 5-6 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough.
For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE winds over the western
part of the area are forecast to diminish to mostly fresh speeds
Mon afternoon as the 1010 mb low weakens and pulls farther away
from the forecast waters allowing for the pressure gradient to
relax some. The aforementioned seas of 8-10 ft in NE swell will
slowly subside through late Mon. Otherwise, little change is
expected to the current conditions over much of the area the
next few days. The active convection along the monsoon trough
will gradually shift westward and weaken through this afternoon.
$$
Aguirre
